The US is resetting, but not how the world expected

Donald Trump's return to the White House is shaping up to be nothing short of a political revolution. The new administration is rapidly dismantling the old order, purging the ruling elite, reshaping both domestic and foreign policy, and cementing changes that will be difficult to reverse - even if his opponents regain power in future elections.

For Trump, as for all revolutionaries, the priority is to break the existing system and consolidate radical transformations. Many of the principles that guided US policy for decades - sometimes for over a century - are being deliberately discarded. Washington's global strategy, long built on expansive military, diplomatic, and financial influence, is being rewritten to serve Trump's domestic political needs.

The end of the American liberal empire

For the past 100 years, the US has functioned as a global empire. Unlike traditional empires built on territorial expansion, the American empire extended its reach through financial dominance, military alliances, and ideological influence. This model, however, has become increasingly unsustainable. Since the late 1990s, the costs of maintaining global hegemony have exceeded the benefits, fueling discontent both at home and abroad.

Trump and his allies seek to end this 'liberal empire' and return America to a more self-reliant, mercantilist model - one reminiscent of the late 19th and early 20th centuries under President William McKinley. Trump has openly praised this era, viewing it as the golden age of US prosperity, before the country took on the burdens of global leadership.

Under this vision, America will reduce unproductive foreign expenditures and refocus on its natural advantages: Vast resources, an advanced industrial base, and the world's most valuable consumer market. Rather than policing the world, Washington will wield its economic power more aggressively to secure trade advantages. However, the transition to this model carries significant risks, particularly in a highly globalized economy.

A shift in global strategy

Trump's policies are driven by domestic concerns but will have major implications abroad. His administration is systematically dismantling key institutions of the old order, including those that irritated Moscow. For instance, USAID - a major vehicle for American influence in the post-Soviet space - has been gutted. Ironically, Trump had more motivation to destroy USAID than even Russian President Vladimir Putin, given that its resources had been repurposed for domestic political use by Trump's rivals.

If the US abandons its liberal empire model, many sources of tension with Russia will disappear. Historically, Moscow and Washington had relatively stable relations throughout the 19th century. If Trump's America reverts to a more isolationist approach, Russia will no longer be a primary target of US interference. The main friction point will likely be the Arctic, where both nations have strategic interests.

China, however, remains Trump's top adversary. Beijing's state-led economic expansion is fundamentally at odds with Trump's mercantilist vision. Unlike Biden, who sought to counter China through alliances, Trump is willing to go it alone - potentially weakening Western unity in the process. His administration is expected to escalate economic and technological warfare against Beijing, even if it means alienating European allies.

Europe's strategic uncertainty

One of Trump's most disruptive moves has been his open hostility toward the EU. His vice president, J.D. Vance, recently delivered a speech in Munich that amounted to direct interference in European politics, signaling support for right-wing nationalist movements that challenge the EU's authority.

This shift is forcing Europe into an uncomfortable position. For years, China has viewed Western Europe as an 'alternative West' with which it could engage economically without the same level of confrontation it faces with the US. Trump's approach could accelerate EU-Chinese ties, especially if Western European leaders feel abandoned by Washington.

There are already signs that European policymakers may loosen restrictions on Chinese investments, particularly in critical industries such as semiconductors. At the same time, the ambitions of some Europeans for NATO expansion into the Indo-Pacific may falter, as the bloc struggles to define its new role in a post-globalist US strategy.

Russia and China: A changing relationship

For years, Washington fantasized about splitting Russia and China apart. But Trump's new approach is unlikely to achieve this goal. The Russia-China partnership is built on strong fundamentals: A massive shared border, complementary economies, and a shared interest in countering Western dominance.

If anything, the shifting geopolitical landscape could push Russia into a position similar to that of China in the early 2000s - focusing on economic development while maintaining strategic flexibility. Moscow may reduce its efforts to actively undermine the US and instead concentrate on strengthening its economic and security ties with Beijing.

China, meanwhile, will bear the brunt of Trump's new American empire. The US will no longer rely on alliances to contain Beijing but will use direct economic and military pressure. While this may make life more difficult for China, it does not necessarily mean the US will succeed. China has been preparing for economic decoupling for years, and Beijing may find opportunities in a more divided Western world.

The road ahead

Trump's return marks a fundamental shift in global power dynamics. The US is moving away from being a liberal empire and toward a more transactional, power-based foreign policy. For Russia, this means fewer ideological conflicts with Washington but continued competition in key areas like the Arctic.

For China, Trump's policies present a direct challenge. The question is whether Beijing can adapt to a world where the US is no longer just containing it but actively trying to roll back its economic influence.

For Western Europe, the picture is bleak. The EU is losing its privileged status as America's primary partner and is being forced to fend for itself. Whether it can navigate this new reality remains to be seen.

One thing is certain: The world is entering a period of profound transformation, and the old rules no longer apply. Trump's America is rewriting the playbook, and the rest of the world will have to adjust accordingly.

This article was first published by the magazineProfileand was translated and edited by the RT team.

(RT.com)