RT.com
28 Mar 2023, 11:43 GMT+10
S&P Global Ratings forecasts 5.5% GDP growth this year
China's economy will grow this year, exceeding Beijing's official projections and supporting wider Asia-Pacific expansion, S&P Global Ratings said in its outlook, which was issued on Sunday.
The agency forecasts a "largely organic recovery" in the world's second-largest economy in 2023, led by consumption and services.
"Our growth forecast of 5.5% exceeds the country's modest target of 'around 5%.' In our view, Beijing set that target at a relatively unambitious level to provide room for policy to respond to inflation or financial risks, if needed," S&P stated.
The report indicated that after the sudden removal of Covid-19 restrictions, China quickly moved on from the pandemic, with mobility rising fast and confidence up. Better momentum in industrial production, investment, and especially in retail sales in the first two months confirmed the recovery, the ratings agency said.
Conditions in the housing sector have reportedly brightened, with sales improving and prices stabilizing in early 2023. The agency wrote that it does not expect a V-shaped recovery, but that a turnaround in such an important sector would help sustain growth and reduce downside risks.
Infrastructure investment growth should ease this year as policymakers aim to contain local public debt, the report said. "Weak export prospects and supply chain adjustments will weigh on corporate investment. Nonetheless, following the initial bounce-back, growth should become more broad-based. Investment and industrial activity will make a meaningful contribution," S&P wrote.
At the same time, the report highlighted the "two-way risks" to China's growth outlook for 2023 and 2024, warning that after the initial bounce-back, the recovery may lose steam due to potential setbacks such as housing or labor market weakness.
According to S&P, other Asia-Pacific economies should slow but not stumble on weaker global growth, the receding of the benefits from domestic re-opening, and the impact of higher interest rates.
"We maintain our cautiously optimistic outlook for Asia-Pacific. China's economy is on track to recover this year. For other economies this will dampen but not offset the hit of slower growth in the US and Europe, the fading impact of domestic re-opening post the pandemic, and higher interest rates," the agency wrote.
S&P expects the region, excluding China, to grow at 3.8% in 2023, after 4.7% growth in 2022. "In most economies, inflation should decline, although elevated core inflation will prod some central banks to raise rates further. External pressure from rising US interest rates will likely push some others to lift rates further too."
For more stories on economy & finance visit RT's business section
(RT.com)
Get a daily dose of Baton Rouge Post news through our daily email, its complimentary and keeps you fully up to date with world and business news as well.
Publish news of your business, community or sports group, personnel appointments, major event and more by submitting a news release to Baton Rouge Post.
More InformationNEW YORK, New York - Global stock indices closed with divergent performances on Tuesday, as investors weighed corporate earnings, central...
TORONTO, Canada: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced late on June 29 that trade negotiations with the U.S. have recommenced...
Vancouver, Canada: A high-stakes legal showdown is brewing in the world of athleisure. Lululemon, the Canadian brand known for its...
LONDON, U.K.: British oil giant Shell has denied reports that it is in talks to acquire rival oil company BP. The Wall Street Journal...
NEW YORK, New York - U.S. stock markets closed firmly in positive territory to start the week Monday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones...
WASHINGTON, D.C.: On Friday, President Donald Trump announced that he was halting trade discussions with Canada due to its decision...
VILNIUS, Lithuania – A growing body of research suggests that selectively restricting a single nutrient in our diet could have profound...
SYDNEY, NSW, Australia - , Australian Federal Police (AFP) have shut down a secret drug lab in Sydney's west and seized more than 100kg...
The US president has urged the Palestinian group to accept his Gaza ceasefire proposal ...
The US president has urged the Palestinian group to accept his Gaza ceasefire proposal US President Donald Trump has publicly warned...
US President Donald Trump urged Iran-backed Hamas militants to agree to what he called a final proposal for a 60-day cease-fire with...
(250702) -- ANKARA, July 2, 2025 (Xinhua) -- Syrians shop at a local market in the Onder neighborhood of Ankara, Trkiye, on July 1,...